In Xenopus, as in all amphibians and possibly in vertebrate embryos in general, mesoderm formation and the establishment of the dorsoventral axis depend on inductive cell interactions. Molecules involved in mesoderm induction include FGF which acts predominantly as a ventrolateral inducer, the TGF‐β homolog activin which can induce all types of mesoderm, and members of the Wnt family which have powerful dorsalizing effects. Early effects of inducer action include the activation of regulatory genes. Among such genes, particular interest is focused (...) on three genes encoding putative transcription factors that are expressed specifically in the Spemann organizer region of the gastrula. Expression of one of these genes, goosecoid, has been shown to be sufficient to elicit the formation of a dorsal axis including head and notochord in the embryo. (shrink)

Scientific theories are hard to find, and once scientists have found a theory, H, they often believe that there are not many distinct alternatives to H. But is this belief justified? What should scientists believe about the number of alternatives to H, and how should they change these beliefs in the light of new evidence? These are some of the questions that we will address in this article. We also ask under which conditions failure to find an alternative to H (...) confirms the theory in question. This kind of reasoning is frequently used in science and therefore deserves a careful philosophical analysis. 1 Introduction2 The Conceptual Framework3 The No Alternatives Argument4 Discussion I: A Quantitative Analysis of the No Alternatives Argument5 Discussion II: The Number of Alternatives and the Problem of Underdetermination6 ConclusionsAppendix AAppendix B. (shrink)

String dualities establish empirical equivalence between theories that often look entirely different with respect to their basic ontology and physical structure. Therefore, they represent a particularly interesting example of empirical equivalence in physics. However, the status of duality relations in string physics differs substantially from the traditional understanding of the role played by empirical equivalence. The paper specifies three important differences and argues that they are related to a substantially altered view on the underdetermination of theory building.

The subjective Everettian approach to quantum mechanics presented by Deutsch and Wallace fails to constitute an empirically viable theory of quantum phenomena. The decision theoretic implementation of the Born rule realized in this approach provides no basis for rejecting Everettian quantum mechanics in the face of empirical data that contradicts the Born rule. The approach of Greaves and Myrvold, which provides a subjective implementation of the Born rule as well but derives it from empirical data rather than decision theoretic arguments, (...) avoids the problem faced by Deutsch and Wallace and is empirically viable. However, there is good reason to cast doubts on its scientific value. (shrink)

Dawid's account of non-empirical theory assessment is meant to complement traditional theory assessments. I contend that his arguments don't provide support for this account. His three arguments, the no alternatives argument, the unexpected explanatory connections argument, and the meta-inductive argument from prior theories' success, are all problematic, particularly for an assessment of string theory. In particular, I argue that the meta-inductive argument is idle, because it's role in underwriting the future predictive success of a theory is subsumed by the (...) normal accounting of its predecessor's predictions in theory growth and testing. Dawid's arguments are interdependent, so showing that one fails is sufficient to cast doubt on his entire account. (shrink)

This article investigates the implications of string theory for the conception of scientific theory confirmation. The classical understanding of theory confirmation is based on the assumption that scientific theory building is underdetermined by the available empirical data. Several arguments are presented, which suggest a devaluation of this ‘principle of scientific underdetermination’ in the context of string theory. An altered conception of scientific progress emerges that is not based on the notion of theory succession.

According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson’s argument only applies to one of two versions of the NMA. The other version, which resembles the form in which the argument was initially presented by Putnam and Boyd, remains unaffected by his line of reasoning. We provide a formal reconstruction of that version of the NMA and show that it is valid. Finally, (...) we demonstrate that the use of subjective priors is consistent with the realist implication of the NMA and show that a core worry with respect to the suggested form of the NMA can be dispelled. (shrink)

In this paper I analyse the problem of free will and determinism as it pertains to the Austrian School of Economics. I demonstrate that despite the fact they subscribe to the concept of causality,...

String theory has played a highly influential role in theoretical physics for nearly three decades and has substantially altered our view of the elementary building principles of the Universe. However, the theory remains empirically unconfirmed, and is expected to remain so for the foreseeable future. So why do string theorists have such a strong belief in their theory? This book explores this question, offering a novel insight into the nature of theory assessment itself. Dawid approaches the topic from a (...) unique position, having extensive experience in both philosophy and high-energy physics. He argues that string theory is just the most conspicuous example of a number of theories in high-energy physics where non-empirical theory assessment has an important part to play. Aimed at physicists and philosophers of science, the book does not use mathematical formalism and explains most technical terms. (shrink)

Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie sytuacji oraz kondycji finansowej strefy euro i próba zorientowania się w tym względzie na przyszłość. Kryzys strefy euro to największe wyzwanie dla całego Eurolandu, ale i Unii Europejskiej. Zła sytuacja finansowa i stagnacja z nią związana zmuszają do refleksji i podjęcia działań naprawczych. Nie wyciągnięcie wniosków generuje problemy i dezintegruje całą strefę euro. W artykule zostaną postawione: hipotezy, tezy oraz pytania badawcze.

It has been argued in Dawid that physicists at times generate substantial trust in an empirically unconfirmed theory based on observations that lie beyond the theory’s intended domain. A crucial role in the reconstruction of this argument of “non-empirical confirmation” is played by limitations to scientific underdetermination. The present paper discusses the question as to how generic the role of limitations to scientific underdetermination really is. It is argued that assessing such limitations is essential for generating trust in any (...) theory’s predictions, be it empirically confirmed or not. The emerging view suggests that empirical and non-empirical confirmation are more closely related to each other than one may expect at first glance. (shrink)

We provide a philosophical reconstruction and analysis of the debate on the scientific status of cosmic inflation that has played out in recent years. In a series of critical papers, Ijjas et al. have questioned the scientificality of the current views on cosmic inflation. Proponents of cosmic inflation have in turn defended the scientific credentials of their approach. We argue that, while this defense, narrowly construed, is successful against Ijjas et al., the latter's reasoning does point to a significant epistemic (...) issue that arises with respect to inflation. A broadening of the concept of theory assessment is needed to address that issue in an adequate way. (shrink)

In my article I present David Armstrong's stance on properties, relations, particulars and states of affairs. I introduce this categories to show, at the most general level, his metaphysical system called factualism. My article consists of four parts, in each one I characterize following categories: 1. Properties 2. Relation 3. Particulars 4. States of affairs. I also discuss Armstrong's arguments considering the nature of those categories and their role in his philosophy. Also, I try to emphasis differences between Armstrong's factualism (...) and other contemporary metaphysical positions (Bundle theory and Trop theory). (shrink)

We discuss the proposal by Sebens and Carroll to derive the Born rule in Everettian quantum mechanics from a principle they call ‘ESP-QM’. We argue that the proposal fails: ESP-QM is not, as Sebens and Carroll argue, a ‘less general version’ of an independently plausible principle, ESP, and can only be motivated by the empirical success of quantum mechanics, including use of the Born rule. Therefore, ESP-QM cannot have the status of a meta-theoretical principle of reasoning and provides no viable (...) basis for deriving the Born rule. (shrink)

The current status of string theory is assessed quite differently by most of the theory’s exponents than by the majority of physicists in other fields. While the former tend to have a high degree of trust in string theory’s viability, the latter largely share a substantially more skeptical point of view. This article argues that the controversy can be best understood in terms of a paradigmatic rift between the two sides over their understandings of theory assessment. An attempt is made (...) to evaluate the two conflicting paradigms on their own terms. †To contact the author, please write to: Institute Vienna Circle, University of Vienna, Universtitätscampus Spitalgasse 2‐4, Hof 1, 1090 Vienna, Austria; e‐mail: richard.dawid@univie.ac.at. (shrink)

It is argued that the high degree of trust in the Higgs particle before its discovery raises the question of a Bayesian perspective on data analysis in high energy physics in an interesting way that differs from other suggestions regarding the deployment of Bayesian strategies in the field.

In this paper we analyse the concept of coerced exchange (and partly of voluntary exchange inasmuch as the absence of coercion is its necessary condition), which is of utmost importance to economic theory in general and to the Austrian School of Economics in particular. The subject matter literature normally assumes that a coerced action occurs under threat. Threats in turn can be studied from the perspective of speech act theory, which is concerned with the speaker’s intentions. Ultimately, our goal is (...) to provide a descriptive (i.e. non-moralized) definitions of threat and coercion, based on the analysis of the coercer’s intentions. If successful, we would be in a position to present such an account of coerced and voluntary exchanges that is compatible with both speech act theory and the Austrian methodology. Although we focus on the Austrian School of Economics, we believe that our investigations might impact on economic theory in general. We also criticize a rights-based account of coercion employed in the research practice of some neo-Austrians and based on the libertarian ethic of property rights. (shrink)

String theory has by now maintained a highly influential position in high energy physics for more than a quarter of a century. The present article analyses the reasons for the considerable trust exponents of string theory have in their theory even though it has neither found empirical confirmation nor a complete formulation up to this point. It is argued that this trust can be understood in terms of an emerging new conception of theory assessment that relies strongly on the identification (...) of limitations to the underdetermination of scientific theory building. The second part of the paper makes the point that another conspicuous element of string theoretical reasoning, the prominent role of the notion of a final theory, can be understood in terms of this altered notion of theory assessment as well. (shrink)

The discovery of the Higgs particle required a signal of 5σ significance. The rigid application of that condition is a convention that disregards more specific aspects of the given experiment. In particular, it does not account for the characteristics of the look elsewhere effect in the individual experimental context. The paper relates this aspect of data analysis to the question as to what extent theoretical reasoning should be admitted to play a role in the assessment of the significance of empirical (...) data. (shrink)

Bradley develops some theory of the linear opinion pool, in apparent contradiction to results of Dawid et al.. We investigate the sources of these contradictions, and in particular identify a mathematical error in Bradley that invalidates his main result.

The increasing digitalization of science particularly forgrounds the status of its visual objects. While more and more disciplines depend on methods of computer visualization, the respective transformation processes of knowledge on which the visualizations are based often remain unthematized. The article argues that an ontographic aisle between the abstraction and representation of knowledge lies in the visualization processes. This aisle is central to digitized scientific cultures. Therefore, two case studies from the history of computer graphics will be discussed.

John Norton has proposed a position of “material induction” that denies the existence of a universal inductive inference schema behind scientific reasoning. In this vein, Norton has recently presented a “dome scenario” based on Newtonian physics that, in his understanding, is at variance with Bayesianism. The present note points out that a closer analysis of the dome scenario reveals incompatibilities with material inductivism itself.

This article is an attempt of representing St. Augustine's struggle against the greatest problems of Christian ethics, namely, the problem of evil. After the introduction of the philosophical grounds of the problem, we will turn to the outline of the way the Bishop of Hippo has gone through in the quest of the rational explanations for the existence of evil. An analysis of Augustine's works has shown that he lost his hope to find any sensible answer to this question with (...) the lapse of time, and abandoned himself to an almost blind faith. The Saint leaves us all by ourselves with this anxious question about evil. (shrink)

In the absence of empirical confirmation, scientists may judge a theory's chances of being viable based on a wide range of arguments. The paper argues that such arguments can differ substantially with regard to their structural similarly to empirical confirmation. Arguments that resemble empirical confirmation in a number of crucial respects provide a better basis for reliable judgement and can, in a Bayesian sense, amount to significant \textit{non-empirical} confirmation. It is shown that three kinds of non-empirical confirmation that have been (...) specified in earlier work do satisfy those conditions. (shrink)

Pico was generally perceived as a representative of the Pelagian heresy and a supporter of absolute freedom of man. However, more detailed analysis of his works reveals that in his views he was much more traditional than it used to be judged. Although Pico does not negate human freedom, he has consistently stressed the necessity of grace in salvation. So, in the question of free will Pico represents traditional post-Augustinian school and advocates, also present at the Thomas’, graduated concept of (...) grace. (shrink)

The recent studies on the relations between humanism or humanists and jurisprudence convince that Reneaissance, especially in XVIth century, when the national states began to raise, belonged to the periods of increased interest in the issue of law. Although Erasmus was not a layer, nor he introduced in any of his works a complete theory of law, he maintained close relations with many leading theoreticians of the law and jurists and sometimes spoke in the legal discussions of his age. Among (...) hist most important works concerning the matter of law were: Institutio principis Christiani, Ratio seu Methodus verae theologiae, Christiani matrimonii institutio, De interdicto esu carnium and Ecclesiastes. In the paper I’m going to concentrate on this latter work, in which Erasmus discusses the significance of preaching, preacher and widely understood Christian rhetoric. In the Ecclesiastes Erasmus touches the law subject with the special emphasis on historical character of law and relations between the divine law, the law of Christ and the law of Nature. After a short discussion about his understaning of law I will concentrate on the essential differentiation between the letter of law and the spirit of law, and I will point at proposed by Erasmus ways of introduction of law into human life. Erasmus, on the one hand, escaped a rigidity and abstraction of law and, on the other, he neutralised an aspect of the coercion of law. In his solution Erasmus appreciated the political dimension of preaching and acknowledged preacher as a more important guide of the people, than ruler. I’m going to interpret the Erasmian concept of preaching as an rhetorical mean of introduction of law in analogical way to “introduction” proposed by Plato in his Nomoi. (shrink)

Celem niniejszego artykułu jest systematyczny namysł i próba oceny badań Dariusza Kuboka nad krytycyzmem, związanych z monografią Krytycyzm, sceptycyzm i zetetycyzm we wczesnej filozofii greckiej, która problematyzuje krytycyzm z perspektywy filozoficznej i prezentuje nowy paradygmat interpretacyjny wczesnej filozofii greckiej. Artykuł składa się z trzech części. Pierwsza przybliża część dorobku publikacyjnego Polskiego Badacza, będącego drogą do jego głównego dzieła. Druga omawia problem, metodę i strukturę opus magnum. Trzecia poddaje ocenie badania, a także ich znaczenie z perspektywy filozoficznej oraz ogólnohumanistycznej.

We survey a variety of possible explications of the term “Individual Risk.” These in turn are based on a variety of interpretations of “Probability,” including classical, enumerative, frequency, formal, metaphysical, personal, propensity, chance and logical conceptions of probability, which we review and compare. We distinguish between “groupist” and “individualist” understandings of probability, and explore both “group to individual” and “individual to group” approaches to characterising individual risk. Although in the end that concept remains subtle and elusive, some pragmatic suggestions for (...) progress are made. (shrink)

The aim of this paper is to examine Jizang’s theory of knowledge and truth in terms of contemporary philosophy. Firstly, I present the main areas of Madhyamaka thought, especially those concerning human knowledge and cognition, enunciated in Nagarjuna’s Vigrahavyāvartani. Secondly, I raise the issue of the acceptance of Madhyamaka in the area of Chinese thought, which provides us with the question of the inception and development of the sānlùn zōng – the Three Treatises School. Thirdly, I expound the main points (...) and key notions of Jizang’s philosophy: the crucial concepts of the “refutation of erroneous views as the illumination of right views” and “the Four Levels of the Two Kinds of Truth”. I try to explicate and develop these ideas in terms of modern epistemology, which in the first instance is related to the Münschausen trilemma. (shrink)

We develop a mathematical and interpretative foundation for the enterprise of decision-theoretic (DT) statistical causality, which is a straightforward way of representing and addressing causal questions. DT reframes causal inference as “assisted decision-making” and aims to understand when, and how, I can make use of external data, typically observational, to help me solve a decision problem by taking advantage of assumed relationships between the data and my problem. The relationships embodied in any representation of a causal problem require deeper justification, (...) which is necessarily context-dependent. Here we clarify the considerations needed to support applications of the DT methodology. Exchangeability considerations are used to structure the required relationships, and a distinction drawn between intention to treat and intervention to treat forms the basis for the enabling condition of “ignorability.” We also show how the DT perspective unifies and sheds light on other popular formalisations of statistical causality, including potential responses and directed acyclic graphs. (shrink)

String theory currently is the only viable candidate for a unified description of all known natural forces. This article tries to demonstrate that the fundamental structural and methodological differences that set string theory apart from other physical theories have important philosophical consequences. Focussing on implications for the realism debate in philosophy of science, it is argued that both poles of that debate face new problems in the context of string theory. On the one hand, the claim of underdetermination of scientific (...) theory by the available empirical data, which is a pivotal element of empiricism, loses much of its plausibility. On the other hand, the dissolution of any meaningful notion of an external ontological object destroys the basis for conventional versions of scientific realism. String theory seems to suggest an intermediate position akin to Structural Realism that is based on a newly emerging principle, to be called the principle of theoretical uniqueness. (shrink)

An overview of: "Why Red Doesn't Sound Like a Bell. Understanding the feel of consciousness".

Complex phenomena – like structures or processes – are intriguing scientists around the world. There are many reasons why complexity is a popular topic of research. Having that all in mind I would like to focus in this introductory article on one example of complexity, that is structural complexity where complex geometrical patterns appear as the result of the simple rules of an algorithm – known as the chaos game. Therefore the aim of this paper is an invitation to more (...) advanced research on complexity. (shrink)

Archaeologists have been interested in Hollywood films for a few decades. What basically interested them was the theme of how cinema misperceives the practice of archaeology and its object of study (the past). In this paper I focus on How to Train Your Dragon (2010), 3-D animated film about Vikings for children. A film is always already a meta-film. Every film is, to use Hegelian distinction, a story in itself, presents more or less coherent story. At the same time, a (...) film is for itself, a meta-film, a meta-story which reflects on and encapsulates a more general context part of which is a particular film. In this paper both levels are scrutinised with regard to How to Train Your Dragon. My attention is paid especially to the ideological aspects of the film which presents a story about some vision of the past. It is an attempt of showing how archaeology, or more generally, the past is used to mask and stage at the same time elements of contemporary politics. (shrink)